Saturday, January 31, 2009

Stock Chart Reading (Stock Mutual Funds)

Stock Mutual Funds

As an investor you will want to check
out any equity before you buy it. Many investors
go to Morningstar which is one of the largest
providers of mutual fund information in the world.
It is assumed that their information is correct.
After all that is what you are paying for.

Recently the SEC (Securities and
Exchange Commission) called them on the carpet for
not correcting an error within a reasonable time
(whatever that is according to the SEC). Everyone
makes errors and this was no big deal.

It seems that when you went to their
site and drew up a chart or asked for statistics
on Rock Canyon Top Flight mutual fund it failed to
notify the potential buyer that the fund had
issued a very large dividend of approximately 25%
and the NAV (Net Asset Value) dropped from $15 to
$11 to reflect the $4.00 dividend.

When you ask for a chart of this fund
on MarketWatch, Yahoo, TheStreet or Bloomberg they
only post the NAV and do not make any adjustment
for the dividend or capital gains distributions.
Looking at the chart it appears the fund fell out
of bed. Because I look at so many charts I knew
immediately that this was a distribution and not
some calamity. It is best to call the fund to
verify this.

Most funds that make dividend and capital gains
distributions usually do so in December, some in
November and very few at other times during the
year.

Some nitpicker called the SEC and made
a complaint about Morningstar. Not that I am a big
fan of them (in fact I think their reports are
worthless) they get their price information from
other sources such as the above. If you are not
familiar with the requirement of mutual funds to
disburse their profit before year end you might be
fooled when you see the price suddenly drop.

This is important for potential
investors. I caution everyone to get a chart on
the Internet of at least a one year performance of
any mutual fund before buying. It is better to go
back to year 2000 to see if the fund manager was
able to keep from losing money during the last 4
years. Almost none of them could so they bamboozle
about how they did better than the S&P500 Index
which had a huge loss of 50% and remains down 25%
from those highs at this time. Don't fall for that
one.

Once again I caution that any purchase
should have an exit plan. One of the basic rules
of investing is never to lose a lot if you are
wrong. Small losses will not ruin your portfolio,
but big losses can ruin your retirement. Set your
loss limit (5%, 10% or ?) and stick with it.

Charts can help you with
buying/selling decisions, but check out their
accuracy as charting is not an exact science.

Al Thomas' book, "If It Doesn't Go Up, Don't Buy It!"
has helped thousands of people make money
and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method.
Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com
and discover why he's the man that Wall Street does
not want you to know.

Stock Mutual Funds


Thursday, January 29, 2009

Analysts - Do They Really Know The Stock Market? (Stock Mutual Funds)

Stock Mutual Funds

When you become interested in a stock
or mutual fund you can call your broker and he
will send you reports on how the company is doing,
what their management is like and what might be
the projected earnings for the company and how the
industry is doing. Great information.

You will apply yourself to this mound
of papers to determine if you want to buy the
equity. You might also send for more reports from
independent analysts such as Morningstar. You will
become buried in papers. That is what the
brokerage company wants. The reason is very
simple. If you buy the stock after doing all that
research and it goes down instead of up they are
not responsible for your stupidity. Of course, if
it goes up they can take credit for providing all
that great information.

Now let's think for a minute. You
received all that information that was already
printed so it could be sent to you. It makes me
ask when was that printed? How old is the
information? If I can get all this stuff about the
company it means that anyone can. What it boils
down to is the information is just that -
information and none of it will tell you that the
stock will go up further because the whole world
knows.

These brochures are made to help you
BUY not SELL. In my years of experience I call
them a work of fiction. No brokerage company is
going to issue a bad report about a company at
least until it is ready for bankruptcy and by then
your investment dollars have disappeared.

I know your next question. If I can't
rely on those reports how am I going to buy
anything? There is a better way. You will want to
see the price action of the stock or mutual fund.
All stocks undulate as they go up or down and you
want to know the major trend.

On the Internet you can go to a web
site www.bigcharts.com and type in the symbol of
the stock or fund and request a weekly chart going
back for about to 5 years. What you are interested
in is what is it doing during the past 6 months to
one year. If the trend is up it is a buy and if
the trend is down or sideways don't buy it or if
you own it sell. See how easy that is. Brokers and
financial planners won't like it because it takes
all the mystery out of buying stock and they don't
want you to know this simple procedure.

Analyst reports give you lots of
useless information, but will not tell if the
stock will go up after you buy it. If it isn't
going up don't buy it.

Al Thomas' book, "If It Doesn't Go Up, Don't Buy It!"
has helped thousands of people make money
and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method.
Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com
and discover why he's the man that Wall Street does
not want you to know.

Stock Mutual Funds

Tuesday, January 27, 2009

Defining a Long-Term Investment in the Stock Market (Stock Mutual Funds)

Stock Mutual Funds

For some "long term" would mean holding a stock position over the weekend. For others, it may mean holding a security for at least 1 year for the purpose of declaring a long-term capital gain, thus saving on taxes.

The rigid definition of a long-term investment in the stock market would be holding a security for a minimum of 5 years, to as long as 30 years.

I'm going to tell you my definition of a long-term investment in a security by telling you a story. A true story!

My Mother worked as a teller in a small bank in Dover, New Jersey. The name of the bank was called The Dover Community Bank. While working at the bank (she eventually became a branch manager) she enrolled in the bank's dividend reinvestment plan, making purchases of the stock through pay-roll deductions from her paycheck. She continued purchasing the stock through the years, having the dividends from her shares in the bank reinvested into more shares every quarter. By the time she left the bank (in the early seventies) she had accumulated around 300 shares of The Dover Community Bank.

My Father, when he retired, had the dividends from those shares sent home - to help ends meet. When my Dad passed away at age 80, my brother and I inherited over 7,600 shares of The Bank of New York, all originating from those 300 shares of what was once called The Dover Community Bank.

So, through this individual experience I have adopted my own opinion of what is called a long-term investment in a security. It is simply this - securities should be purchased with the intent of providing dividend income to help ends meet during retirement, with the understanding that no one can successfully retire without financial freedom.

So every investment now in a security would be purchased with the intent of holding that security (and adding to it during the years) until the dividend income from that security is ample enough to ease the loss of income from retiring from my job. Now, I not only provide for myself during my retirement years, but will leave this earthly realm knowing that I will also be able to relieve some financial burdens for those I've left behind.

With this definite, concrete purpose for investing in mind, a definite, concrete plan would need to be created (and can be found in my book The Stockopoly Plan) to achieve this long-term investment goal. My Mother invested in only one stock and got lucky - a considered plan would diversify.

If I am going to hold a security position forever, what criteria should I be looking for in that security? Certainly, dividend income - that's a given! And since I never intend to sell the security, capital gains may not even be an issue (more on this later).

So then, what else? I would argue that a company that just pays a dividend isn't good enough. Instead, I will only purchase those companies that have a long history of raising their dividend every year. This will eliminate a whole bunch of risk. It would eliminate the possibility that the company is 'cooking their books;' after all, the money has to be there to pay the shareholder. And because this company has been raising their dividend every year for many years, it eliminates the risk of investing in a start-up company that may not even be around in a year or so.

Also, the rising dividend every year would help off-set the risk of inflation and the risk of a lower stock price during the year would actually accelerate my income from the security.

Since I would want my position in the stock to grow through the years, thus increasing my dividend income, all dividends would be reinvested into the stock, until retirement. A lower stock price, therefore, would purchase more shares, at a higher dividend yield and would simply accelerate my dividend income.

Now the question may arise, when would I want to sell a stock? Certainly not because a Merrill Lynch has downgraded the whole sector - that's a blessing in disguise - a temporary lower stock price just means a higher dividend yield, allowing my dividend to purchasing more shares.

The question of when to sell a stock puts me in the mind of a quote I once read by Jacobsen - "Judgment is the one thing you cannot learn at college. You either have it or you don't have it." The time/reason to sell a stock varies. If there comes a time when you have so much money tied up in just one stock position that it's making you feel uncomfortable, sell some of it. If the company you purchased stopped raising its dividend you may want to lighten up and/or divert the funds you were putting into that security into one that is continuing its program of increasing their dividend every year.

A company may trim their dividend - when and if this happens (and it does) my advice is not to be overly anxious to sell the stock. Find the reason why the company is trimming their dividend. It may be to reduce debt or for the possibility of acquisitions. The company's dividend yield may have been around 6 percent, and all their peers' dividend yields are around 4 percent. Certainly, do not add to your holdings in this company, but give management a chance to see how they handle the extra cash, since they appear to have better use for the money, other than to pay their shareholders. The resulting growth in that company may make up for the lower dividend yield and two or three years later you'll get a better perspective on whether to sell the company or not (or to continue adding more shares through new monies, or simply to allow the dividends to continue purchasing the stock).

For more excerpts from the book 'The Stockopoly Plan'

Visit: http://www.thestockopolyplan.com

You have permission to this article either electronically or in print as long as the author bylines are included, with a live link, and the article is not changed in any way (typos, excluded). Please provide a courtesy e-mail to charles@thestockopolyplan.com telling where the article was published. (word count 986)

Charles M. O'Melia is an individual investor with almost 40 years of experience and passion for the stock market. Author of the book 'The Stockopoly Plan - Investing for Retirement', published by American-Book Publishing.

Stock Mutual Funds

Sunday, January 25, 2009

Oil Stocks CHK WLL - What Is Their Worth? (Stock Mutual Funds)

Stock Mutual Funds

(1) CHK stock price $16.74, NAV $32.5

CHK is my favorite oil or natural gas stock. Here is updated Net Asset Value (NAV) table from CHK July 2004 earning release:

Table CHK PV-10 per share NAV vs Natural gas price

N Gas price NAV per share

$4.50 $16.11

$5.00 $19.60

$5.50 $23.11

$6.00 $26.61

$6.50 $32.5

PE = 10 or 10% of earning yield is considered reasonable valuation for non-growing business. PV-10 Net Asset Value (NAV) is standard calculation for value of oil or natural gas reserve assuming current production cost and expenses. When N gas price = $4.5, CHK will make $1.611 per share per year true profit with current production/exploration expenses. CHK is worth $16.11 at $4.5 gas price in this case. We can imagine that as if CHK is a bank deposit account, the interest rate is 10%, if we deposit $16.11 principle there, each year we get 10% interest returns or $1.611 interest per year.

For the 1st half of 2004, natural gas price was between $5 and $7 averaging at $6.0. Natural gas price was as high as $9 in later half of 2004. CHK stock price is still below $17 recently and its reported quarterly net income severely under-estimated its true profitability.

* Margin of Safety - CHK

Wall Street analysts have been predicting significantly lower N. gas price or oil price in 2-3 years ahead. Therefore, CHK or the whole oil and gas stocks are trading as if N. gas price between $4 - $5 range or oil price between $20 - $30 range.

First of all, I disagree that oil or natural gas will go down much from here. Inflation, weak dollar, China and US strong economy justifies the current high energy price. Energy price will stay high for quite long term. Wall Street analysts are still living in past memory of low oil price in 1990's world. In fact, current oil price is still at half of price of 1970's peak if we adjust inflation from then.

Second of all, even if I am wrong and wall street analysts are right, and natural gas price crashing down to $4.5 or oil price crashing down below $30 in next 2-3 years, CHK current stock price has already factored in such low energy price (see above table).

Third, the NAV value is a moving target. Specifically for CHK, NAV is growing at 20% to 25% per year recently.

* CHK - NAV growth 20% or $3 per share per year

Neither CHK nor WLL pay dividend. They all reinvest their profit into acquiring or drilling for more oil or gas reserve. Therefore, reserve based NAV adjusted by cash or debt reflect true net asset value for the stock. Reserve based NAV increase per year reflect their true earning of business.

CHK NAV value per share has been growing at 20% - 25% per year rate or $3 per share currently. Even if energy stocks continue to trade at current low valuation to its true earnings, CHK stock price is likely to increase 20% - 25% return per year just due to its NAV increase. If Wall Street finally accept high energy price as norm in the future, then CHK can reward shareholders even more.

CHK mainly achieved this excellent operation performance by following measures:

Low cost drilling and fast organic production growth. Current quarter yearly organic production growth is 11%. This is one of highest in the industry.

Excellent acquisition track record. Over past few years, CHK has been able to dramatically increase production of acquired property in short term so that CHK's acquisitions have been accretive to current shareholders. Even though the latest acquisition is slightly dilutive in per reserve basis, it is expected to be accretive in cashflow or earning basis.
Successful out-performing hedging program. CHK has been able to obtain above industry hedging prices over past years. CHK is not locked into long term contract of low prices as many do. For the current quarter CHK realized a low gas price due to past hedging so that their earning per share is flat compared to last year. CHK hedging is light in 2005 or beyond so that higher price can be expected in 2005 or beyond.

(2) WLL stock price $31, NAV $63

WLL is trading at discount even to private acquisition price and very low multiples to its cashflow. WLL also has very experienced management team with long track record in oil gas business.

WLL reported $63 per share PV-10 NAV at latest quarterly earning report. Currently WLL is trading significantly below its PV-10 NAV value. In fact, WLL is trading at big discount to its peers too. WLL is trading at $1.32 per Mcfe reserve. The current average industry acquisition price was $1.5 per Mcfe reserve over past 1.5 years.

For the 1st half of 2004 WLL generated 18% of annualized return after replacing all the reserve depletion. The recent acquisition of $44 million acquisition is accretive at $1.11 Mcfe per reserve cost. It is accretive in either reserve , cashflow or revenue basis. With more accretive deals like this, WLL NAV growth can be 20% per year or more instead.

The recent 2 quarters reported yearly organic production of only 2%, much lower than expected 5% - 10% growth. However, production growth is over-rated performance measurement in Wall Street. Most importantly, WLL did not waste any money into over-spending. WLL simply did not spend extra expected drilling capex. WLL reserve replacement drilling cost was still low. From investor point of view, even if WLL production growth is not as good as CHK, WLL NAV can still grow at 18% to 20% per year with smart accretive acquisition and low cost drilling.

(3) Conclusion

I continue to like WLL and CHK. I continue to hold WLL CHK in Blast Investor Real-time Plus model portfolio.

Article by Henry Lu of BlastInvest LLC, a premium investment newsletter publisher in Connecticut. Visit http://www.BlastInvest.com for FREE "how-to" investing assistance, web services and more.

Stock Mutual Funds